Molletes dulces, bolillo with butter and sugar. A rising dollar, hot and dry weather. These factors should influence the price of bread and coffee, items that are consumed daily by Brazilians, which will become more expensive.
The appreciation of the dollar in relation to the real is the villain when it comes to the price of bread. This is because Brazil imports wheat (and pays in dollars) to complement domestic production and meet the market demand of flour producers. According to the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo), the variation in the value of the foreign currency throughout 2024 has already impacted prices.
This scenario is likely to worsen in 2025, as a result of climate change. The intense heat and drought of the last few months are damaging crops. Consequently, national production should suffer a reduction, which will make the country even more dependent on imports. “The scenario was challenging in 2024, marked by volatility in international prices, adverse weather conditions and a significant reduction in national production,” Abitrigo said in a statement.
The unfavorable weather will also have consequences on the price of coffee. The historic drought and heat waves are affecting the cultivation of the grain, mainly in São Paulo and Minas Gerais. Coffee is a perennial crop, meaning the tree is planted only once and bears fruit every year.
In 2024, according to experts, the peak of drought and heat, between September and November, coincided with the flowering of the plantations, which harmed the cycle and brought more pests and diseases to the trees, reducing production. With less supply of grains, the price tends to rise on supermarket shelves.
Sources: G1 and InfoMoney.
